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Archive for January, 2009

Using a retirement calculator

January 5th, 2009 at 02:32 pm

My preferred retirement calculator is

http://www.flexibleretirementplanner.com/java/LaunchFRPWeb.h...

Here are inputs I use (and how I interpret them):

Current age, retirement age and life expectancy. Mostly self explanatory. Always make sure you have a 30 year retirement for best planning (better to die with money than to die destitute).
In my example I am entering 35 for current age and 53 for retirement age.

Inflation- 3.5% I use default then will adjust upward some once I see core numbers with 3.5%. Use default for example.

Investment tax rate- 15% is current long term capital gains rate. This has impact to point where you have taxable accounts. If you have state taxes, you need to add that to the 15% (for example if state rate is 4.5% and fed is 15%, total is 19.5%. Use 20% for example.

Income tax rate is federal+state income tax rate. If you are married making more than 70k taxable income this is 25% federal+ whatever your state bracket is. Use 30% for best planning (this is worst case- I think- for most people). Use 30% for example.

Taxable portfolio- enter present value of taxable accounts. I would NOT include EF in this.
In my example I am using $1000.

Tax deferred portfolio- enter current value of 401ks, rollovers and money you have NOT paid tax on yet. Use 92000 for the example.

Tax free portfolios. Enter current value of roth accounts here. Use 27000 for example.

Min 401k/IRA withdraw age- enter age you will begin withdraws from 401k/IRA. Use 53 for the example.

Taxable annual savings- Enter amount you put into taxable accounts on a yearly basis. Enter 6000 for example ($500/mo).

Tax deferred annual savings. Enter amount you contribute to 401ks, traditional IRAs or similar. Use 24000 for the example.

Tax free annual savings. Enter amounts you contribute to ROTH accounts. In example use 10500 ($5000 for me, $5000 for wife in IRA, plus wife contributes 1% of gross to a Roth 401k).

Investing style- choose aggressive. Note it gives %stocks-%bonds-%international (70-7-23). Also note it gives avg return and standard deviation (10.5% and 15.8).
--
write down the following
moderate risk is 41-45-14
with returns of 8.5% and std deviation of 9.9%.

below avg risk is 30-60-10 with returns of 7.5% and std deviation of 7.1%.
--
Annual retirement income- enter income from a job you will WORK at once retired. Leave at 0 for example.

Retirement income starts at age what? List age for new job. does not matter if income is blank for the example.

Annual retirement spending. Enter your annual expenses you will need in retirement. Enter 60k for the example.

In upper right corner there is an "additional inputs", click that button.

set 3 different portfolio return criteria:

1) start of plan to end at age 45; rate ot 10.5%, std deviation of 15.8 (this is the aggressive choice). Click add.

**this is because I plan to be aggressive in investing style until age 45. 8 years from retirement the plan is to tone this down some.**

2) age 46 to retirement year, use a rate of 8.5 and a std deviation of 9.9. Click add.
**this is a move to a 60-40 type portfolio while working but before retirement**

3) retirement year to end of plan, use a rate of 7.5% with a std deviation of 7.1%. Click add.
**This is a 40-60 portfolio which is quite moderate (and should yield more than 4%).**

At bottom of this same window, add SS.

cashflow type: SS
start year age 62
end year (end of plan)
annual amount: $12000 (this is less than one half my projected benefit- I plan to take SS early at age 62).
Taxable percent: 85 (this is because if gross income+ 1/2 of SS is over 44k, SS gets taxed).

click add

add in SS for spouse. I want my wife to get her full benefit. She'll probably live longer, so this is "worst case".

start:Age 71
end: end of plan
annual amount: 24000 (full benefit in todays dollars)
taxable percent: 85

click add
click done

at top of screen there is a "run simulation" button.

Click run simulation.
You see a probability of success of 84.7%. That works for me. I make note a few numbers:
Starting withdraw rate is 4.2% (goal is for 4%).
Portfolio value at retirement $1.4 M (goal is $1.5 M).

Now tweak some settings- note how the Roth account is depleted (green bars).

There is a spending config button in lower right of inputs.
Click config.

At bottom of form click the following
"take withdraws from taxable, then tax deferred, then tax free"
**this means tap the Roth accounts last (let them grow for as long as possible)**

click run simulation again.

Note the roth account has a higher balance in 2069 (age 96 for me).

There are some finanical planning things this calculator does not take into account, care to discuss?





Retirement calculators

January 3rd, 2009 at 02:34 am

I put a date on my retirement in 2008 (2026) and had not ran thru retirement calculators with it.

T Rowe Price would not let me retire that early on their calculator.

Firecalc suggested I have 100 percent success with 27k of annual contributions (need to find a way to keep that up).

There is another calculator I am linked to on a bookmark which suggests I have a 90+ percent chance of retiring in 2026.

New Years resolutions- control or no control?

January 2nd, 2009 at 12:35 pm

My wife told me her new years resolution was no hospital stays which last for more than 6 months of the year.

She pointed out that in 2008 half of our year was spent in the hospital. Because it was Jan-June I kind of forgot how tough 2008 was.

Wife was in hospital from late january thru March 30, kids were born March 27 and DS2 came home in late June.

I told her to choose a goal she has control over. I don't want to spend ANY time in 2009 in a hospital, but if I have to spend it, it's not like I can control whether I get admitted or not- if I have to go, I have to go.

I have made it 2 days and have made it through my goals (listed previously) including #4. LOL.

College savings plan

January 1st, 2009 at 09:55 am

There was a thread in forums which discussed 529 plans and I want to detail my stance here.

My plan includes the following (done in order listed):

1) Have a budget which is 15/5.
Meaning 15 percent to retirement plans
Meaning 5 percent to short term financial goals (pay down mortgage, vacations, new cars, house improvements or other).

2) Making sure retirement accounts (401k and Roth) are maxed for each spouse. This is important early in process.

3) Having mortgage paid off.

4) considering 529 plans once mortgage is paid off. Logic being that if a person earns around 80k or less per year, the above objectives make more sense than 529 plans.
This plan has a lower federal tax bill than reversing the order.
This plan makes sure the parents are stable financially (now and in future).

--
Some people with 13 year old see this and think "I cannot pay off my mortgage in 4-9 years before my child goes to college".

That is my point... if a person cannot aggressively find the money for making a higher mortgage payment now (to pay it off early), what makes them think they can afford the price tag of a college which is 14k-40k per YEAR for 4 years?

Pay 40k per year on your mortgage now and that proves you can foot the bill on a 40k education price tag.
--
To accomplish the mortgage payoff over a 4-6 year timeframe, a person or family should look at my doubles table.

For example, want to retire at 63, current age of 48.

assume 8 percent annual returns
Age 63 need 25X expenses
age 54 need 12X expenses
age 45 need 6X expenses

This tells me if person did not have 6X already, paying for college and retiring at 63 are out of the question. One of the goals has to give (retirement at 72, pay for college or no college and MAYBE retire at 63).

If the person/family already had 12X expenses, they are ahead (remember current age is 48, they don't need 12X until 54.

I would then take 401k down to point of match, then either fund a 529 or pay down the mortgage (for college). Some of this deals with taxes, some with other considerations.

The main point is to get ahead of retirement checkpoints before starting college funds. Saves on taxes early in life, which puts more money to work early in life.